The Prediction Markets

American Express headcount in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 14, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 71 thousand 96.5%

Next is Above 72 thousand at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 71 thousand
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 71 thousand
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 72 thousand
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 72 thousand
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 73 thousand
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 73 thousand
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 74 thousand
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 74 thousand
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75 thousand
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75 thousand
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 76 thousand
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 76 thousand
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 77 thousand
56.5%
Kalshi 56.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 77 thousand
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 78 thousand
26.5%
Kalshi 26.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 78 thousand
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 79 thousand
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 79 thousand
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80 thousand
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80 thousand
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 71 thousand
  • Above 72 thousand
  • Above 73 thousand

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "American Express headcount in fiscal 2026". Above 71 thousand leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 72 thousand at 96.5%. $11K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 14, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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