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Trading ended on Jul 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Shane Van Gisbergen39.7%56%39.7% fair55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago56¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Shane Van Gisbergen39.7%Kalshi 56%(39.7% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Shane Van Gisbergen
39.7%
56%
39.7% fair
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
56¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Shane Van Gisbergen
39.7%
Kalshi 56%(39.7% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shane Van Gisbergen
- Last price
- 56%
- Fair, margin removed
- 39.7%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $1K
Connor Zilisch27.7%39%27.7% fair5¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Connor Zilisch27.7%Kalshi 39%(27.7% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Connor Zilisch
27.7%
39%
27.7% fair
5¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Connor Zilisch
27.7%
Kalshi 39%(27.7% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Connor Zilisch
- Last price
- 39%
- Fair, margin removed
- 27.7%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $165
Chase Elliott6.4%9%6.4% fair— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chase Elliott6.4%Kalshi 9%(6.4% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase Elliott
6.4%
9%
6.4% fair
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase Elliott
6.4%
Kalshi 9%(6.4% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase Elliott
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $21
Kevin Magnussen6.4%9%6.4% fair— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Kevin Magnussen6.4%Kalshi 9%(6.4% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kevin Magnussen
6.4%
9%
6.4% fair
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kevin Magnussen
6.4%
Kalshi 9%(6.4% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kevin Magnussen
- Last price
- 9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Michael McDowell2.8%4%2.8% fair4¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Michael McDowell2.8%Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Michael McDowell
2.8%
4%
2.8% fair
4¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Michael McDowell
2.8%
Kalshi 4%(2.8% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michael McDowell
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $61
AJ Allmendinger0.7%1%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)AJ Allmendinger0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
AJ Allmendinger
0.7%
1%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
AJ Allmendinger
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AJ Allmendinger
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $84
Austin Dillon0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Austin Dillon0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Dillon
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Dillon
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Dillon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Austin Hill0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Austin Hill0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Hill
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Hill
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Hill
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Brad Keselowski0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Brad Keselowski0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Keselowski
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Brad Keselowski
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Keselowski
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Carson Hocevar0.7%1%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Carson Hocevar0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Carson Hocevar
0.7%
1%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Carson Hocevar
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Hocevar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $99
Show 29 more outcomesHide 29 outcomes
Cody Ware0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cody Ware0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cody Ware
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cody Ware
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cody Ware
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Daniel Suárez0.7%1%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Daniel Suárez0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Daniel Suárez
0.7%
1%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Daniel Suárez
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Suárez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $154
Denny Hamlin0.7%1%— bid, 20¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Denny Hamlin0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Denny Hamlin
0.7%
1%
— bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Denny Hamlin
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denny Hamlin
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $108
Josh Berry0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Josh Berry0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josh Berry
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Josh Berry
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Berry
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Noah Gragson0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Noah Gragson0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Gragson
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Noah Gragson
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Noah Gragson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Ricky Stenhouse0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ricky Stenhouse0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ricky Stenhouse
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ricky Stenhouse
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ricky Stenhouse
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Riley Herbst0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Riley Herbst0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Riley Herbst
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Riley Herbst
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Riley Herbst
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ty Dillon0.7%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ty Dillon0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Dillon
0.7%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Dillon
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ty Dillon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $720
Tyler Reddick0.7%1%1¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Tyler Reddick0.7%Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Tyler Reddick
0.7%
1%
1¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Tyler Reddick
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tyler Reddick
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $262
Alex Bowman0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alex Bowman0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alex Bowman
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alex Bowman
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Bowman
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Austin Cindric0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Austin Cindric0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Cindric
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Austin Cindric
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Cindric
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Bubba Wallace0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bubba Wallace0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bubba Wallace
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bubba Wallace
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bubba Wallace
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Chase Briscoe0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chase Briscoe0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase Briscoe
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chase Briscoe
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chase Briscoe
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Chris Buescher0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Chris Buescher0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Buescher
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Chris Buescher
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chris Buescher
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Christopher Bell0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Christopher Bell0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Christopher Bell
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Christopher Bell
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Christopher Bell
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Cole Custer0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Cole Custer0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cole Custer
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Cole Custer
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cole Custer
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Corey Heim0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Corey Heim0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Corey Heim
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Corey Heim
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Corey Heim
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Erik Jones0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Erik Jones0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Erik Jones
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Erik Jones
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Erik Jones
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Jimmie Johnson0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jimmie Johnson0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jimmie Johnson
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jimmie Johnson
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jimmie Johnson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Joey Logano0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Joey Logano0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joey Logano
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Joey Logano
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Logano
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
John H. Nemechek0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)John H. Nemechek0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John H. Nemechek
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
John H. Nemechek
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- John H. Nemechek
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kyle Larson0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kyle Larson0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kyle Larson
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kyle Larson
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Larson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ross Chastain0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ross Chastain0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ross Chastain
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ross Chastain
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ross Chastain
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Blaney0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ryan Blaney0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Blaney
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Blaney
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Blaney
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Preece0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ryan Preece0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Preece
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryan Preece
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Preece
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Todd Gilliland0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Todd Gilliland0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Todd Gilliland
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Todd Gilliland
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Todd Gilliland
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ty Gibbs0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ty Gibbs0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Gibbs
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ty Gibbs
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ty Gibbs
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
William Byron0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)William Byron0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
William Byron
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
William Byron
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- William Byron
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Zane Smith0.3%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3027 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Zane Smith0.3%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Zane Smith
0.3%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3027 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Zane Smith
0.3%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zane Smith
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Shane Van Gisbergen
- Connor Zilisch
- Chase Elliott
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Anduril 250 Qualifying Session: Pole Position". Shane Van Gisbergen last traded at 39.7%. Next is Connor Zilisch at 27.7%. $17K has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 4, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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