The Prediction Markets

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Closed
May 31, 2026
Traded
$102K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 206 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
April 30
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4961 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
April 30
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4961 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
March 31
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Polymarket
May 31
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4961 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
May 31
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 206 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • April 30
  • March 31
  • May 31

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?". April 30 last traded at 100%. Next is March 31 at 100%. $102K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the month following resolution time or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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