The Prediction Markets

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$527K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

600B+ 94.8%

Next is No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 3.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

600B+ 94.8%No IPO by December 31, 2027 3.5%400–600B 1%200–300B 0.5%100–200B 0.1%300–400B 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
600B+
94.8%
Polymarket 95.7%(94.8% fair)polled, 31s agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
600B+
Last price
95.7%
Fair, margin removed
94.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
94.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
No IPO by December 31, 2027
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO by December 31, 2027
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
400–600B
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
400–600B
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
200–300B
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
200–300B
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
100–200B
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
100–200B
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Polymarket
300–400B
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
300–400B
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Polymarket
100B
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
100B
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$178K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 600B+
  • No IPO by December 31, 2027
  • 400–600B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap". 600B+ leads at 94.8%. Next is No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 3.5%. $527K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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