The Prediction Markets

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$2.1M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

1.75–$2.0T 27.3%

Next is 1.5–$1.75T at 20.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1.75–$2.0T 27.3%1.5–$1.75T 20.4%2.0–$2.25T 16.9%2.25–$2.5T 12.7%No IPO by December 31, 2027 5.6%5 others 17.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1.75–$2.0T
27.3%
Polymarket 28%(27.3% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.75–$2.0T
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
27.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$350K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5–$1.75T
20.4%
Polymarket 20.9%(20.4% fair)polled, 27s agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–$1.75T
Last price
20.9%
Fair, margin removed
20.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$218K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.0–$2.25T
16.9%
Polymarket 17.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $562 (5.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–$2.25T
Last price
17.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.8¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$562 (5.62x)
Volume
$454K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.25–$2.5T
12.7%
Polymarket 13%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.25–$2.5T
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Polymarket
No IPO by December 31, 2027
5.6%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
No IPO by December 31, 2027
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$110K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.25T
4.5%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25T
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$173K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.25–$1.5T
4.2%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25–$1.5T
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5–$2.75T
3.8%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–$2.75T
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$139K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0T+
3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0T+
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$104K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.75–$3.0T
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75–$3.0T
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.75–$2.0T
  • 1.5–$1.75T
  • 2.0–$2.25T

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap". 1.75–$2.0T leads at 27.3%. Next is 1.5–$1.75T at 20.4%. $2.1M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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