The Prediction Markets

AP calls the Senate by...?

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

January 4, 11:59 PM 97.7%

Next is December 2, 11:59 PM at 92%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
January 4, 11:59 PM
97.7%
Polymarket 97.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 97.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
January 4, 11:59 PM
Last price
97.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
97.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 2, 11:59 PM
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 2, 11:59 PM
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
November 18, 11:59 PM
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 18, 11:59 PM
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Polymarket
November 13, 11:59 PM
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 13, 11:59 PM
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Polymarket
November 6, 11:59 PM
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 6, 11:59 PM
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Polymarket
November 4, 11:59 PM
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 4, 11:59 PM
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 4, 3:59 AM
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 4, 3:59 AM
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Polymarket
November 4, 12:59 AM
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 4, 12:59 AM
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Polymarket
November 3, 11:59 PM
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 3, 11:59 PM
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Polymarket
November 3, 10:59 PM
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 3, 10:59 PM
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • January 4, 11:59 PM
  • December 2, 11:59 PM
  • November 18, 11:59 PM

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "AP calls the Senate by...?". January 4, 11:59 PM leads at 97.7%. Next is December 2, 11:59 PM at 92%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press calls control of the United States Senate for the Congress that will convene following the 2026 midterm elections by the specified date and time (ET). Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Only calls that Senate control has been determined will qualify. Individual race calls that do not state that Senate control has been determined will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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