Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
800M 70.5%
Next is 500M at 70%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
800M70.5%70.5%69¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)800M70.5%Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
800M
70.5%
70.5%
69¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
800M
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800M
- Last price
- 70.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $15K
500M70%70%69¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 1 min ago71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)500M70%Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
500M
70%
70%
69¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
500M
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500M
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $31K
1B67%67%61¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 1 min ago73¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $137 (1.37x)1B67%Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
1B
67%
67%
61¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
73¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
1B
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1B
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $9K
2B49.5%49.5%45¢ bid, 54¢ askpolled, 1 min ago54¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $185 (1.85x)2B49.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
2B
49.5%
49.5%
45¢ bid, 54¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
54¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $185 (1.85x)
2B
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2B
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 54¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $185 (1.85x)
- Volume
- $7K
3B43.5%43.5%42¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 1 min ago45¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $222 (2.22x)3B43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
3B
43.5%
43.5%
42¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
45¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
3B
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3B
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $6K
4B40.5%40.5%35¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 1 min ago46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)4B40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4B
40.5%
40.5%
35¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
4B
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4B
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $3K
5B17.5%17.5%16¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)5B17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5B
17.5%
17.5%
16¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
5B
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5B
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $5K
7B12.7%12.7%5.3¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)7B12.7%Polymarket 12.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
7B
12.7%
12.7%
5.3¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
7B
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7B
- Last price
- 12.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $967
10B5.6%5.6%5.2¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)10B5.6%Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
10B
5.6%
5.6%
5.2¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
10B
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 10B
- Last price
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $629
20B0.9%0.9%0.3¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)20B0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
20B
0.9%
0.9%
0.3¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
20B
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20B
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 800M
- 500M
- 1B
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 800M leads at 70.5%. Next is 500M at 70%. $80K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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