The Prediction Markets

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$84K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

30.0-34.9% 67.3%

Next is 25-29.9% at 25.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

30.0-34.9% 67.3%25-29.9% 25.6%35–39.9% 4%45%+ 1.4%20-24.9% 0.6%2 others 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
30.0-34.9%
67.3%
Polymarket 66.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 67.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
30.0-34.9%
Last price
66.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67.1¢
Sell Yes
66.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
25-29.9%
25.6%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
25-29.9%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
35–39.9%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
35–39.9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
45%+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
45%+
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
20-24.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-24.9%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
40-44.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-44.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
20%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
20%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: indec.gob.ar

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 30.0-34.9%
  • 25-29.9%
  • 35–39.9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Argentina Annual Inflation 2026". 30.0-34.9% leads at 67.3%. Next is 25-29.9% at 25.6%. $84K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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