The Prediction Markets

Argentina Monthly Inflation - October

Closes
Nov 12, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.0% 99%

Next is Above 1.2% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.0%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.2%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.4%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.4%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.6%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.6%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.8%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.8%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6 to 1.8%
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.6 to 1.8%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.9 to 2.1%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9 to 2.1%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.0%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.2%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.2%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$644
Trade this on Kalshi
1.3 to 1.5%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3 to 1.5%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
2.5 to 2.7%
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5 to 2.7%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket
2.2 to 2.4%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2 to 2.4%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.4%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.4%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1000
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.6%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.6%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.2%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1%+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%+
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8 to 3.0%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8 to 3.0%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: indec.gob.ar
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.0%
  • Above 1.2%
  • Above 1.4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Argentina Monthly Inflation - October". Above 1.0% leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.2% at 98%. $21K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in Argentina's Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in October 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026, currently scheduled to be released on November 12, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-5-31. The relevant figure is the one listed in the report under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: This market's resolution source reports the monthly percentage change in the Argentine Consumer Price Index to one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Calendario-Fecha-0

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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