The Prediction Markets

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

1600.00 47.7%

Next is 1600.00–1699.99 at 27.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

1600.00 47.7%1600.00–1699.99 27.8%1700.00–1799.99 12.8%1900.00–1999.99 5%2000.00+ 4.8%1800.00–1899.99 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
1600.00
47.7%
Polymarket 51.5%(47.7% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
1600.00
Last price
51.5%
Fair, margin removed
47.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1600.00–1699.99
27.8%
Polymarket 30%(27.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
1600.00–1699.99
Last price
30%
Fair, margin removed
27.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1700.00–1799.99
12.8%
Polymarket 13.9%(12.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $382 (3.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
1700.00–1799.99
Last price
13.9%
Fair, margin removed
12.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26.2¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$382 (3.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1900.00–1999.99
5%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1900.00–1999.99
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
2000.00+
4.8%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2000.00+
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1800.00–1899.99
1.9%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1800.00–1899.99
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bcra.gob.ar

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1600.00
  • 1600.00–1699.99
  • 1700.00–1799.99

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)". 1600.00 leads at 47.7%. Next is 1600.00–1699.99 at 27.8%. $23K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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