The Prediction Markets

Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee

Starts in 366 daysKickoff
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Axel Kicillof 55.3%

Next is Sergio Massa at 15.4%. The venues differ most on Sergio Massa (Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 10%), a 10-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Axel Kicillof
55.3%
Polymarket 54%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Sergio MassaArb
15.4%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
5.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Máximo Kirchner
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Máximo Kirchner
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sergio Uñac
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Uñac
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Gerardo Zamora
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gerardo Zamora
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Kalshi
Dante Gebel
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dante Gebel
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Kalshi
Eduardo de Pedro
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eduardo de Pedro
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Jorge Capitanich
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jorge Capitanich
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Grabois
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Grabois
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricardo Quintela
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricardo Quintela
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sergio Massa on Kalshi at 14¢, sell on Polymarket at 16¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Sep 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Aug 7, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: electoral.gob.ar
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Partido Justicialista, Cámara Nacional Electoral
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Sep 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Aug 7, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Axel Kicillof
  • Sergio Massa
  • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

Live prices for Axel Kicillof

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee". Axel Kicillof leads at 55.3%. Next is Sergio Massa at 15.4%. $10K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 1, 2027.

Argentina's next presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the individual who becomes the presidential candidate of the main Peronist electoral coalition for the 2027 Argentine presidential election. For the purposes of this market, the “main Peronist electoral coalition” is the political party or electoral alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista (PJ) at the national level (as of October 2026, Fuerza Patria). If the PJ contests the presidential election on its own rather than as part of an alliance, the PJ’s presidential candidate will qualify. An individual will be considered the nominee once their candidacy for President has been officially registered by the main Peronist electoral coalition for the first round of the 2027 presidential election and approved (oficializada) by the competent Argentine electoral court. If a primary election is held, an individual who wins the coalition’s presidential primary will qualify only once their candidacy for the first round has been approved. If no presidential candidacy of the main Peronist electoral coalition has been approved for the first round by October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any replacement of the nominee after their candidacy has been approved will not change the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets