The Prediction Markets

Argentina presidential election: first round winner?

Closes
Oct 23, 2028, in 24 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Javier Milei 53.4%

Next is Axel Kicillof at 17.3%. The venues differ most on Patricia Bullrich (Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 2%), a 9.4-point gap.

Javier Milei 53.4%Axel Kicillof 17.3%Karina Milei 5.2%Sergio Massa 4.7%Patricia Bullrich 3.8%13 others 15.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Javier Milei
53.4%
Polymarket 61.5%(52.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 63%(53.1% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
61.5%
Fair, margin removed
52.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Milei
Last price
63%
Fair, margin removed
53.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Axel KicillofArb
17.3%
Polymarket 21%(17.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 19%(16% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
21%
Fair, margin removed
17.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Axel Kicillof
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Karina Milei
5.2%
Polymarket 6%(5.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karina Milei
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Sergio Massa
4.7%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 9%(7.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Massa
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.3¢.

Patricia Bullrich
3.8%
Polymarket 11.5%(9.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patricia Bullrich
Last price
11.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$441 (4.41x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patricia Bullrich
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Guillermo Moreno
3.5%
Polymarket 4.1%(3.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Moreno
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro
2.9%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Victoria VillarruelArb
2.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%(3.4% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victoria Villarruel
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Victoria Villarruel
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Myriam Bregman
2.2%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Myriam Bregman
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Myriam Bregman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Mauricio MacriArb
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Macri
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Macri
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 70 bps before fees.

Show 8 more outcomes
Juan Schiaretti
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Schiaretti
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Schiaretti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.3¢.

Juan GraboisArb
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Grabois
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$135
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Grabois
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Polymarket
Esteban Bullrich
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Bullrich
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
Facundo Manes
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Facundo Manes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Hadad
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Hadad
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Dante Gebel
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dante Gebel
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolás del Caño
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás del Caño
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Axel Kicillof on Kalshi at 19¢, sell on Polymarket at 20¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 25, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Cámara Nacional Electoral
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Javier Milei
  • Axel Kicillof
  • Karina Milei

Live prices for Javier Milei

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Argentina presidential election: first round winner?". Javier Milei leads at 53.4%. Next is Axel Kicillof at 17.3%. $37K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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