The Prediction Markets

Ariana Grande: Highest daily view count (October 19, 2026 - October 25, 2026)

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 13M 99%

Next is Above 13.5M at 97%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 13M
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13M
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13.5M
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13.5M
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14M
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14M
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.5M
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5M
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 14.5M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5M
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5M
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.5M
11.5%
Kalshi 11.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.5M
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.5M
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.5M
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 19.5M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.5M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19M
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19M
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
24M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 13M
  • Above 13.5M
  • Above 14M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 13M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ariana Grande: Highest daily view count (October 19, 2026 - October 25, 2026)". Above 13M leads at 99%. Next is Above 13.5M at 97%. $32K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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