The Prediction Markets

Ariana Grande: Highest daily view count (October 2026)

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 14.5M 48%

Next is Above 15.5M at 36%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 14.5M
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 14.5M
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15.5M
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15.5M
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15M
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15M
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16.5M
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16.5M
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 16M
23.5%
Kalshi 23.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 16M
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17M
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 17.5M
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 17.5M
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18.5M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.5M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 18M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$773
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.5M
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.5M
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 19M
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19M
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
25M
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25M
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
24M
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
24M
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
26M
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
26M
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
27M
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
27M
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: charts.youtube.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: YouTube Charts

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 14.5M
  • Above 15.5M
  • Above 15M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 14.5M for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ariana Grande: Highest daily view count (October 2026)". Above 14.5M leads at 48%. Next is Above 15.5M at 36%. $41K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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