The Prediction Markets

Arizona 03 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 80K 92%

Next is Above 100K at 73%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 80K
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80K
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100K
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100K
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 120K
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 120K
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 190K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 80K
  • Above 100K
  • Above 120K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona 03 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 80K leads at 92%. Next is Above 100K at 73%. $2K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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