The Prediction Markets

Arizona Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Hobbs, 2+ pts 84%

Next is Hobbs, 5+ pts at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Hobbs, 2+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 2+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs, 5+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 5+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs, 8+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 8+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs, 11+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 11+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs 6-9%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 6-9%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs 9-12%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 9-12%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs 12-15%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 12-15%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs, 14+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 14+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs 3-6%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 3-6%
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs 15-18%
9.4%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 15-18%
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Biggs, 1+ pts
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biggs, 1+ pts
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Biggs, 4+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biggs, 4+ pts
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Biggs, 7+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biggs, 7+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Kalshi
Hobbs, 17+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hobbs, 17+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Biggs 0-3%
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biggs 0-3%
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs 0-3%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 0-3%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Polymarket
Hobbs 18%+
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hobbs 18%+
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Polymarket
Biggs 3-6%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biggs 3-6%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Biggs 6%+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biggs 6%+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hobbs, 2+ pts
  • Hobbs, 5+ pts
  • Hobbs, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Hobbs, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona Governor margin of victory". Hobbs, 2+ pts leads at 84%. Next is Hobbs, 5+ pts at 69%. $53K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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