The Prediction Markets

Arizona's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$66K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Shah, 1+ pts 76%

Next is Shah, 2+ pts at 67%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Shah, 1+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 1+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shah, 2+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 2+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shah, 5+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 5+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shah, 8+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 8+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Feely, 1+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Feely, 1+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shah, 11+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 11+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shah, 14+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 14+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $725 (7.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Feely, 4+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Feely, 4+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
10.7%
Polymarket 10.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
10.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 15.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $662 (6.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.1¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$662 (6.62x)
Volume
$497
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Polymarket
Shah, 17+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shah, 17+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$802
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 18%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-18%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6%+
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6%+
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Polymarket
Feely, 7+ pts
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Feely, 7+ pts
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Shah, 1+ pts
  • Shah, 2+ pts
  • Shah, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Shah, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona's 1st District margin of victory". Shah, 1+ pts leads at 76%. Next is Shah, 2+ pts at 67%. $66K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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