The Prediction Markets

Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Crane, 1+ pts 66%

Next is Crane, 4+ pts at 50%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Crane, 1+ pts
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 1+ pts
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Kalshi
Crane, 4+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 4+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Kalshi
Crane, 7+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 7+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crane, 10+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 10+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
18.4%
Polymarket 18.4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 21.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $467 (4.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
18.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.4¢
Sell Yes
15.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$467 (4.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crane, 13+ pts
13.2%
Kalshi 13.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 13+ pts
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Crane, 16+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 16+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 3-6%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Polymarket
Crane, 19+ pts
5.8%
Kalshi 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crane, 19+ pts
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Crane, 1+ pts
  • Crane, 4+ pts
  • Crane, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Crane, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory". Crane, 1+ pts leads at 66%. Next is Crane, 4+ pts at 50%. $17K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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