The Prediction Markets

Arizona's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Stanton, 4+ pts 92.5%

Next is Stanton, 7+ pts at 87.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stanton, 4+ pts
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 4+ pts
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 7+ pts
87.5%
Kalshi 87.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 7+ pts
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 10+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 10+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 13+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 13+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 16+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 16+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 19+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 19+ pts
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stanton, 22+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 22+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 25+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 25+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 15-20%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
11.6%
Polymarket 11.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$789
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stanton, 28+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 28+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stanton, 31+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stanton, 31+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$537
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$755
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stanton, 4+ pts
  • Stanton, 7+ pts
  • Stanton, 10+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Stanton, 4+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona's 4th District margin of victory". Stanton, 4+ pts leads at 92.5%. Next is Stanton, 7+ pts at 87.5%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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