The Prediction Markets

Arizona's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Grijalva, 22+ pts 95.1%

Next is Grijalva, 25+ pts at 90.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Grijalva, 22+ pts
95.1%
Kalshi 95.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 97.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 22+ pts
Last price
95.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.2¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 25+ pts
90.9%
Kalshi 90.9%polled, 29s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 25+ pts
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90.9¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 28+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 28+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 31+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 91.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 31+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.1¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 32+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 32+ pts
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 34+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 34+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 37+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 37+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Grijalva, 40+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 40+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 30-35%
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Grijalva, 43+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 43+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22.9¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$437 (4.37x)
Volume
$838
Trade this on Polymarket
Grijalva, 46+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grijalva, 46+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50%+
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50%+
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-20%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-20%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grijalva, 22+ pts
  • Grijalva, 25+ pts
  • Grijalva, 28+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Grijalva, 22+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona's 7th District margin of victory". Grijalva, 22+ pts leads at 95.1%. Next is Grijalva, 25+ pts at 90.9%. $19K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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