The Prediction Markets

Arizona's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Gosar, 9+ pts 84%

Next is Gosar, 12+ pts at 78%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gosar, 9+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 91.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 9+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.5¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gosar, 12+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 12+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gosar, 15+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 15+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gosar, 18+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 18+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gosar, 21+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 21+ pts
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gosar, 24+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 24+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gosar, 27+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 27+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Gosar, 30+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 30+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$76
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Polymarket
Gosar, 33+ pts
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gosar, 33+ pts
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gosar, 9+ pts
  • Gosar, 12+ pts
  • Gosar, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gosar, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arizona's 9th District margin of victory". Gosar, 9+ pts leads at 84%. Next is Gosar, 12+ pts at 78%. $28K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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