The Prediction Markets

Arkansas Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 800K 89%

Next is Above 850K at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 800K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 950K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 990K
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 990K
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.04M
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.04M
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.08M
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.08M
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.12M
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.12M
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.16M
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.16M
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.2M
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.2M
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arkansas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 800K
  • Above 850K
  • Above 900K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 800K leads at 89%. Next is Above 850K at 81%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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