The Prediction Markets

Arkansas Senate General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$53K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 750K 94%

Next is Above 800K at 93.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 750K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750K
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$728
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 850K
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 850K
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 900K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 900K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
900K-975K
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
900K-975K
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 950K
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 950K
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 990K
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 990K
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
975K-1.05M
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
975K-1.05M
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
825K-900K
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
825K-900K
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.04M
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.04M
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 1.08M
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.08M
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.12M
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.12M
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1.05M+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.05M+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 1.16M
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.16M
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
750K-825K
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
750K-825K
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
600K-675K
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
600K-675K
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
675K-750K
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
675K-750K
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arkansas Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 750K
  • Above 800K
  • Above 850K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 750K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas Senate General Election: voter turnout". Above 750K leads at 94%. Next is Above 800K at 93.5%. $53K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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