The Prediction Markets

Arkansas Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Cotton, 2+ pts 90.1%

Next is Cotton, 4+ pts at 86%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cotton, 2+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 2+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96.5¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 4+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 4+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 6+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 6+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
92.6¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 8+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 8+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 10+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 10+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 12+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 12+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 14+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 14+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 16+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 16+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$984
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
33.3%
Polymarket 33.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 33.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $298 (2.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
33.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33.6¢
Sell Yes
32.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$298 (2.98x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cotton, 18+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 18+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Republican 5-10%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cotton, 20+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 20+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Polymarket
Cotton, 22+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 22+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 26+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 26+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 24+ pts
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 24+ pts
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 28+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 28+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 30+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 30+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 32+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 32+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
Cotton, 34+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cotton, 34+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40%+
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40%+
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$684
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$751
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$820
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cotton, 2+ pts
  • Cotton, 4+ pts
  • Cotton, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cotton, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas Senate margin of victory". Cotton, 2+ pts leads at 90.1%. Next is Cotton, 4+ pts at 86%. $25K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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