The Prediction Markets

Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Crawford, 27+ pts 93.8%

Next is Crawford, 30+ pts at 88%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Crawford, 27+ pts
93.8%
Kalshi 93.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 27+ pts
Last price
93.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Crawford, 30+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 30+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.8¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
Crawford, 33+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 33+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Crawford, 36+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 36+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Kalshi
Crawford, 39+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 39+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Crawford, 42+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 42+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crawford, 45+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 45+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Crawford, 48+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 48+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Crawford, 51+ pts
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crawford, 51+ pts
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-25%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-25%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$875
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50-55%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55%+
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55%+
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-15%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-15%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Crawford, 27+ pts
  • Crawford, 30+ pts
  • Crawford, 33+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Crawford, 27+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory". Crawford, 27+ pts leads at 93.8%. Next is Crawford, 30+ pts at 88%. $30K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets