The Prediction Markets

Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Westerman, 24+ pts 90%

Next is Westerman, 27+ pts at 85%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Westerman, 24+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 24+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Westerman, 27+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 27+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Westerman, 30+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 30+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Westerman, 33+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 33+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$570
Trade this on Kalshi
Westerman, 36+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 36+ pts
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 35-40%
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Westerman, 39+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 39+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 30-35%
25.9%
Polymarket 25.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $377 (3.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
25.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.5¢
Sell Yes
25.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$377 (3.77x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
14.8%
Polymarket 14.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
14.8%
Polymarket 14.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
14.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
12.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Westerman, 42+ pts
13.6%
Kalshi 13.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 42+ pts
Last price
13.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Westerman, 45+ pts
5.8%
Kalshi 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 45+ pts
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-25%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-25%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Westerman, 48+ pts
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Westerman, 48+ pts
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45-50%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45-50%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-15%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-15%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 50-55%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 50-55%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 55%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 55%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Westerman, 24+ pts
  • Westerman, 27+ pts
  • Westerman, 30+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Westerman, 24+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory". Westerman, 24+ pts leads at 90%. Next is Westerman, 27+ pts at 85%. $31K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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