The Prediction Markets

Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen: Exact Match Score

Ends in about 1 h 5 minExpected to finish
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Arthur Fils wins 2-0 57%

Next is Arthur Fils wins 2-1 at 25%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Arthur Fils wins 2-0 57%Arthur Fils wins 2-1 25%Alex Michelsen wins 2-1 17%Alex Michelsen wins 2-0 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Arthur Fils wins 2-0
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Fils wins 2-0
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$863
Trade this on Kalshi
Arthur Fils wins 2-1
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arthur Fils wins 2-1
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Michelsen wins 2-1
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Michelsen wins 2-1
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Michelsen wins 2-0
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Michelsen wins 2-0
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Arthur Fils wins 2-0
  • Arthur Fils wins 2-1
  • Alex Michelsen wins 2-1

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Arthur Fils vs Alex Michelsen: Exact Match Score". Arthur Fils wins 2-0 leads at 57%. Next is Arthur Fils wins 2-1 at 25%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets