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Trading ended on May 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Bruno Mars69%69%71¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Bruno Mars69%Kalshi 69%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Bruno Mars
69%
69%
71¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Bruno Mars
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bruno Mars
- Last price
- 69%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $49K
Justin Bieber14%14%12¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Justin Bieber14%Kalshi 14%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Justin Bieber
14%
14%
12¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Justin Bieber
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Bieber
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $64K
Drake6%6%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Drake6%Kalshi 6%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Drake
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Drake
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drake
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $81K
Taylor Swift3%3%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Taylor Swift3%Kalshi 3%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Taylor Swift
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Taylor Swift
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Swift
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ariana Grande1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ariana Grande1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ariana Grande
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ariana Grande
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ariana Grande
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $127
Bad Bunny1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Bad Bunny1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bad Bunny
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Bad Bunny
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bad Bunny
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Billie Eilish1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Billie Eilish1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Billie Eilish
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Billie Eilish
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billie Eilish
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $44
Kendrick Lamar1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Kendrick Lamar1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kendrick Lamar
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kendrick Lamar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kendrick Lamar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $94
Lady Gaga1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lady Gaga1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lady Gaga
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lady Gaga
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lady Gaga
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $33
Rihanna1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Rihanna1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Rihanna
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Rihanna
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rihanna
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $24
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
The Weeknd1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Weeknd1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Weeknd
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Weeknd
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Weeknd
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $166
Coldplay0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Coldplay0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Coldplay
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Coldplay
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Coldplay
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ed Sheeran0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3817 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ed Sheeran0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ed Sheeran
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3817 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ed Sheeran
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3817 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ed Sheeran
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Bruno Mars
- Justin Bieber
- Drake
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of May 2026?". Bruno Mars last traded at 69%. Next is Justin Bieber at 14%. $199K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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