The Prediction Markets

ATP 2026 End of Year Rankings: Player to be Number 1

Closes
Jan 15, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$77K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Alexander Zverev 99.6%

Next is Jannik Sinner at 0.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Alexander Zverev 99.6%Jannik Sinner 0.3%Carlos Alcaraz 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Alexander Zverev
99.6%
Polymarket 99.1%(99.6% fair)polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Zverev
Last price
99.1%
Fair, margin removed
99.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
98.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jannik Sinner
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jannik Sinner
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alexander Zverev
  • Jannik Sinner
  • Carlos Alcaraz

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ATP 2026 End of Year Rankings: Player to be Number 1". Alexander Zverev leads at 99.6%. Next is Jannik Sinner at 0.3%. $77K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 15, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes World No. 1 in the official 2026 ATP year-end singles rankings, as published by the ATP at the conclusion of 2026. If the 2026 year-end rankings are not published, are canceled, or a year-end No. 1 has not been determined by January 14 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are tied and officially recognized as co-No. 1, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be the official ATP year-end rankings as published by the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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