The Prediction Markets

ATP 2026 End of Year Rankings: Player to Make Top 10

Closes
TBD
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Daniil Medvedev 99.4%

Next is Ben Shelton at 97.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev
99.4%
Polymarket 99.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
99.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Shelton
97.9%
Polymarket 97.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Shelton
Last price
97.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
95.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Fils
96.9%
Polymarket 96.9%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Zverev
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Zverev
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
93.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Alcaraz
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Flavio Cobolli
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flavio Cobolli
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Jannik Sinner
96.5%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jannik Sinner
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Polymarket
Frances Tiafoe
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Frances Tiafoe
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
93.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Jodar
88%
Polymarket 88%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Jodar
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex de Minaur
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex de Minaur
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Novak Djokovic
31.4%
Polymarket 31.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 32.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $312 (3.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Novak Djokovic
Last price
31.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32.1¢
Sell Yes
30.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$312 (3.12x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jakub Mensik
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jakub Mensik
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tommy Paul
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Felix Auger-Aliassime
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro Tabilo
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro Tabilo
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Learner Tien
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Learner Tien
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Francisco Cerundolo
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Francisco Cerundolo
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Ugo Humbert
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ugo Humbert
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Lorenzo Musetti
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Casper Ruud
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Casper Ruud
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Khachanov
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karen Khachanov
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Jiri Lehecka
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jiri Lehecka
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Bublik
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Polymarket
Luciano Darderi
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luciano Darderi
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrey Rublev
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Rublev
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Valentin Vacherot
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valentin Vacherot
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$581
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Rinderknech
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Rinderknech
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Polymarket
Joao Fonseca
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joao Fonseca
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Daniil Medvedev
  • Ben Shelton
  • Arthur Fils

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ATP 2026 End of Year Rankings: Player to Make Top 10". Daniil Medvedev leads at 99.4%. Next is Ben Shelton at 97.9%. $44K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes the 2026 season ranked within the top 10 (positions 1 through 10, inclusive) of the official year-end ATP singles rankings. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "year-end ATP singles rankings" are the final official singles rankings published after the conclusion of the 2026 ATP Tour season, including the ATP Finals. A player ranked exactly 10th counts as "Yes"; a player ranked 11th or lower, or unranked, counts as "No". If the ATP does not publish a year-end singles ranking for 2026, or the season is not completed, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official ATP year-end singles rankings published at atptour.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets