The Prediction Markets

ATP Lyon Winner

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 37 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 min ago
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What the markets expect

Taylor Fritz 19.4%

Next is Brandon Nakashima at 16.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Taylor Fritz 19.4%Brandon Nakashima 16.8%Tommy Paul 16.8%Flavio Cobolli 15.4%Lorenzo Musetti 15.4%3 others 16.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Taylor Fritz
19.4%
Kalshi 29%(19.5% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
29%
Fair, margin removed
19.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Nakashima
16.8%
Kalshi 25%(16.8% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Nakashima
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
Tommy Paul
16.8%
Kalshi 25%(16.8% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Flavio Cobolli
15.4%
Kalshi 23%(15.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flavio Cobolli
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Lorenzo Musetti
15.4%
Kalshi 23%(15.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
23%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Luca Van Assche
10.1%
Kalshi 15%(10.1% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luca Van Assche
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
10.1%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Corentin Moutet
5.4%
Kalshi 8%(5.4% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corentin Moutet
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
5.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Altmaier
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Altmaier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Taylor Fritz
  • Brandon Nakashima
  • Tommy Paul

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "ATP Lyon Winner". Taylor Fritz leads at 19.4%. Next is Brandon Nakashima at 16.8%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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