Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
25-29 41.4%
Next is 30-34 at 35.8%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
25-2941.4%41%10¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)25-2941.4%Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
25-29
41.4%
41%
10¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
25-29
41.4%
Polymarket 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 25-29
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $15
30-3435.8%35.5%14¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)30-3435.8%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
30-34
35.8%
35.5%
14¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
30-34
35.8%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 30-34
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
208.1%8%3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)208.1%Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
20
8.1%
8%
3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
20
8.1%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $395
35+8.1%8%6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)35+8.1%Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
35+
8.1%
8%
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
35+
8.1%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 35+
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $250
20-246.6%6.5%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)20-246.6%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
20-24
6.6%
6.5%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
20-24
6.6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20-24
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $678
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: IMF PortWatch
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 25-29
- 30-34
- 20
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?". 25-29 leads at 41.4%. Next is 30-34 at 35.8%. $1K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for November 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. This market will resolve based on the whole-number value published by the resolution source for the specified date. Any more granular or unrounded values will not be considered; if the value is presented with decimals in any format, it will be rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5 rounded up.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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