The Prediction Markets

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

0-4 28.5%

Next is 5-9 at 19.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

0-4 28.5%5-9 19.4%20-24 14.1%15-19 13.2%25-29 10.7%2 others 14.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
0-4
28.5%
Polymarket 34.5%(28.5% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
0-4
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Polymarket
5-9
19.4%
Polymarket 23.5%(19.4% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
5-9
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Polymarket
20-24
14.1%
Polymarket 17%(14% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-24
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
15-19
13.2%
Polymarket 16%(13.2% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
15-19
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Polymarket
25-29
10.7%
Polymarket 13%(10.7% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
25-29
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket
10-14
7.9%
Polymarket 9.5%(7.9% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
10-14
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
30+
6.2%
Polymarket 7.5%(6.2% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
30+
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 0-4
  • 5-9
  • 20-24

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November?". 0-4 leads at 28.5%. Next is 5-9 at 19.4%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for November 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. This market will resolve based on the whole-number value published by the resolution source for the specified date. Any more granular or unrounded values will not be considered; if the value is presented with decimals in any format, it will be rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5 rounded up.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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