The Prediction Markets

AWS service disrupted by...?

Closed
Jul 1, 2026
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 30
46.7%
Polymarket 49.5%(46.7% fair)polled, 68 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
46.7%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
40.1%
Polymarket 42.5%(40.1% fair)polled, 68 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
42.5%
Fair, margin removed
40.1%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
September 30
13.2%
Polymarket 14%(13.2% fair)polled, 68 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
September 30
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled 2 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: health.aws.amazon.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30
  • October 31
  • September 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "AWS service disrupted by...?". November 30 last traded at 46.7%. Next is October 31 at 40.1%. $15K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jul 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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