The Prediction Markets

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$17.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 150 96%

Next is Above 160 at 94%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 150
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 205
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
November 30
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$115K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 210
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 150
  • Above 160
  • Above 170

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 150 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?". Above 150 leads at 96%. Next is Above 160 at 94%. $17.6M has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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