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ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Julieta Ramírez Padilla 79.8%
Next is Ismael Burgueño Ruiz at 16.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Julieta Ramírez Padilla79.8%67.8%79.8% fair65.9¢ bid, 69.7¢ askpolled, 2 min ago69.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Julieta Ramírez Padilla79.8%Polymarket 67.8%(79.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
79.8%
67.8%
79.8% fair
65.9¢ bid, 69.7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
69.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
79.8%
Polymarket 67.8%(79.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julieta Ramírez Padilla
- Last price
- 67.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 79.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 65.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $13K
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz16.2%13.8%16.2% fair3.4¢ bid, 24.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago24.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $415 (4.15x)Ismael Burgueño Ruiz16.2%Polymarket 13.8%(16.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
16.2%
13.8%
16.2% fair
3.4¢ bid, 24.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
24.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
16.2%
Polymarket 13.8%(16.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
- Last price
- 13.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 16.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $415 (4.15x)
- Volume
- $14K
Gina Cruz Blackledge0.6%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Gina Cruz Blackledge0.6%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Gina Cruz Blackledge
0.6%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Gina Cruz Blackledge
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gina Cruz Blackledge
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $2K
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez0.5%0.4%0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Montserrat Caballero Ramírez0.5%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
0.5%
0.4%
0.2¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $1K
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $865
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $792
Ana Daniela García Salgado0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Ana Daniela García Salgado0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ana Daniela García Salgado
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Ana Daniela García Salgado
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ana Daniela García Salgado
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $960
Armando Ayala Robles0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Armando Ayala Robles0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Armando Ayala Robles
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Armando Ayala Robles
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Armando Ayala Robles
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $785
Daylín García Ruvalcaba0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Daylín García Ruvalcaba0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Daylín García Ruvalcaba
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $830
Evangelina Moreno Guerra0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Evangelina Moreno Guerra0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evangelina Moreno Guerra
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $4K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Gustavo de Hoyos Walther0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $1K
Gustavo Macalpin0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Gustavo Macalpin0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Gustavo Macalpin
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Gustavo Macalpin
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gustavo Macalpin
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $909
Héctor Osuna Jaime0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Héctor Osuna Jaime0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Héctor Osuna Jaime
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Héctor Osuna Jaime
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Héctor Osuna Jaime
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $607
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $710
Jorge Ramos Hernández0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Jorge Ramos Hernández0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jorge Ramos Hernández
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jorge Ramos Hernández
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jorge Ramos Hernández
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $615
Juan Carlos Hank0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Juan Carlos Hank0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Juan Carlos Hank
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Juan Carlos Hank
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Juan Carlos Hank
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $937
Víctor Galicia0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Víctor Galicia0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Víctor Galicia
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Víctor Galicia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Víctor Galicia
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $787
Fernando Castro Trenti0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Fernando Castro Trenti0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Fernando Castro Trenti
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Fernando Castro Trenti
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fernando Castro Trenti
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $843
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $897
Karla Ruiz Macfarland0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 2 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Karla Ruiz Macfarland0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Karla Ruiz Macfarland
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $811
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Julieta Ramírez Padilla
- Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
- Gina Cruz Blackledge
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Baja California Governor Election Winner". Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads at 79.8%. Next is Ismael Burgueño Ruiz at 16.2%. $48K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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