The Prediction Markets

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Closes
Jun 7, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Manuel Cota Cárdenas 45.5%

Next is Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 24.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Manuel Cota Cárdenas 45.5%Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 24.7%Milena Quiroga Romero 20.5%Christian Agúndez Gómez 7.5%José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar 0.3%8 others 1.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Manuel Cota Cárdenas
45.5%
Polymarket 39.6%(45.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $134 (1.34x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Cota Cárdenas
Last price
39.6%
Fair, margin removed
45.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74.5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$134 (1.34x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias
24.7%
Polymarket 21.5%(24.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Milena Quiroga Romero
20.5%
Polymarket 17.9%(20.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milena Quiroga Romero
Last price
17.9%
Fair, margin removed
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25.6¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$391 (3.91x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christian Agúndez Gómez
7.5%
Polymarket 6.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christian Agúndez Gómez
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Manríquez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Manríquez
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Edith Aguilar Villavicencio
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edith Aguilar Villavicencio
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabricio del Castillo
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabricio del Castillo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Ricardo Barroso Agramont
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ricardo Barroso Agramont
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket
Susana Zataraín García
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Susana Zataraín García
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
Diana Von Borstel Luna
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Diana Von Borstel Luna
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
José Saúl González Núñez
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
José Saúl González Núñez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$471
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Polymarket
Roxana Higuera
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roxana Higuera
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manuel Cota Cárdenas
  • Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias
  • Milena Quiroga Romero

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner". Manuel Cota Cárdenas leads at 45.5%. Next is Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias at 24.7%. $27K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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