The Prediction Markets

Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$169K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Kylian Mbappé 66.6%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 14.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kylian Mbappé 66.6%Lamine Yamal 14.9%Harry Kane 12%Lionel Messi 2%Rodri 0.9%19 others 3.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kylian Mbappé
66.6%
Polymarket 69.5%(66.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
69.5%
Fair, margin removed
66.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamine Yamal
14.9%
Polymarket 15.5%(14.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Harry Kane
12%
Polymarket 12.5%(12% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rodri
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ousmane Dembélé
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dayot Upamecano
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dayot Upamecano
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
William Saliba
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Jude Bellingham
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Nuno Mendes
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuno Mendes
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Vinícius Júnior
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinícius Júnior
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Achraf Hakimi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Fernandes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Declan Rice
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$630
Trade this on Polymarket
Erling Haaland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$856
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabian Ruiz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ferran Torres
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ferran Torres
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Magalhães
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Magalhães
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
João Neves
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
João Neves
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Polymarket
Julián Quiñones
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julián Quiñones
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Lautaro Martinez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Olise
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pau Cubarsi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Diaz
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Marc Cucurella
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Marquinhos
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marquinhos
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Sadio Mané
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sadio Mané
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Vitinha
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Willian Pacho
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Willian Pacho
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kylian Mbappé
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Harry Kane

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place". Kylian Mbappé leads at 66.6%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 14.9%. $169K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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