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What the markets expect
Lamine Yamal 68.9%
Next is Kylian Mbappé at 14.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Lamine Yamal68.9%71.5%68.8% fair71¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 21s ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Lamine Yamal68.9%Polymarket 71.5%(68.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Lamine Yamal
68.9%
71.5%
68.8% fair
71¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Lamine Yamal
68.9%
Polymarket 71.5%(68.8% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lamine Yamal
- Last price
- 71.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 68.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $93K
Kylian Mbappé14.4%15%14.4% fair14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 21s ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Kylian Mbappé14.4%Polymarket 15%(14.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kylian Mbappé
14.4%
15%
14.4% fair
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kylian Mbappé
14.4%
Polymarket 15%(14.4% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kylian Mbappé
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $19K
Lionel Messi6.3%6.6%5.6¢ bid, 7.5¢ askpolled, 21s ago7.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)Lionel Messi6.3%Polymarket 6.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Lionel Messi
6.3%
6.6%
5.6¢ bid, 7.5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
7.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Lionel Messi
6.3%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lionel Messi
- Last price
- 6.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,333 (13.3x)
- Volume
- $9K
Rodri4.6%4.8%3.5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 21s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Rodri4.6%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Rodri
4.6%
4.8%
3.5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Rodri
4.6%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rodri
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $7K
Harry Kane3.1%3.2%2.5¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 21s ago3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)Harry Kane3.1%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Harry Kane
3.1%
3.2%
2.5¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Harry Kane
3.1%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harry Kane
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $8K
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0.5%0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
0.5%
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $7K
Ousmane Dembélé0.4%0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Ousmane Dembélé0.4%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ousmane Dembélé
0.4%
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Ousmane Dembélé
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ousmane Dembélé
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $8K
Michael Olise0.3%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Michael Olise0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Michael Olise
0.3%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Michael Olise
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Olise
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $6K
Fabian Ruiz0.2%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Fabian Ruiz0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Fabian Ruiz
0.2%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Fabian Ruiz
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fabian Ruiz
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $5K
Achraf Hakimi0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Achraf Hakimi0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Achraf Hakimi
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Achraf Hakimi
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Achraf Hakimi
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Bruno Fernandes0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Bruno Fernandes0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Bruno Fernandes
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Bruno Fernandes
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bruno Fernandes
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Dayot Upamecano0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Dayot Upamecano0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Dayot Upamecano
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Dayot Upamecano
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dayot Upamecano
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Declan Rice0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Declan Rice0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Declan Rice
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Declan Rice
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Declan Rice
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
Erling Haaland0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Erling Haaland0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Erling Haaland
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Erling Haaland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Erling Haaland
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
Ferran Torres0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Ferran Torres0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Ferran Torres
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Ferran Torres
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ferran Torres
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $60
Gabriel Magalhães0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Gabriel Magalhães0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Gabriel Magalhães
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Gabriel Magalhães
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gabriel Magalhães
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $60
João Neves0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)João Neves0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
João Neves
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
João Neves
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- João Neves
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Jude Bellingham0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Jude Bellingham0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jude Bellingham
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Jude Bellingham
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jude Bellingham
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $2K
Julián Quiñones0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Julián Quiñones0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Julián Quiñones
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Julián Quiñones
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julián Quiñones
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Lautaro Martinez0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Lautaro Martinez0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Lautaro Martinez
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Lautaro Martinez
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lautaro Martinez
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $2K
Luis Diaz0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Luis Diaz0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Luis Diaz
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Luis Diaz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Diaz
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Sadio Mané0.1%0.2%— bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Sadio Mané0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Sadio Mané
0.1%
0.2%
— bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Sadio Mané
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sadio Mané
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
Marc Cucurella0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Marc Cucurella0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Marc Cucurella
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Marc Cucurella
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marc Cucurella
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Marquinhos0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Marquinhos0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Marquinhos
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Marquinhos
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marquinhos
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Nuno Mendes0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Nuno Mendes0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nuno Mendes
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nuno Mendes
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nuno Mendes
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Pau Cubarsi0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Pau Cubarsi0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Pau Cubarsi
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Pau Cubarsi
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pau Cubarsi
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Vinícius Júnior0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Vinícius Júnior0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vinícius Júnior
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vinícius Júnior
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vinícius Júnior
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
Vitinha0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Vitinha0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vitinha
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Vitinha
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vitinha
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2K
William Saliba0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)William Saliba0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
William Saliba
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
William Saliba
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- William Saliba
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Willian Pacho0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 21s ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Willian Pacho0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Willian Pacho
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 21s ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Willian Pacho
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Willian Pacho
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $50
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Lamine Yamal
- Kylian Mbappé
- Lionel Messi
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place". Lamine Yamal leads at 68.9%. Next is Kylian Mbappé at 14.4%. $173K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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