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What the markets expect
Lionel Messi 74%
Next is Rodri at 9.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 46 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Lionel Messi74%74%73¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 46 min ago75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Lionel Messi74%Polymarket 74%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Lionel Messi
74%
74%
73¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
75¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Lionel Messi
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lionel Messi
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $14K
Rodri9.1%9.1%5.9¢ bid, 12.2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago12.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $820 (8.20x)Rodri9.1%Polymarket 9.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Rodri
9.1%
9.1%
5.9¢ bid, 12.2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
12.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Rodri
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rodri
- Last price
- 9.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $820 (8.20x)
- Volume
- $80
Michael Olise8%8%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Michael Olise8%Polymarket 8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Michael Olise
8%
8%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Michael Olise
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Olise
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $162
Bruno Fernandes6.3%6.3%0.1¢ bid, 12.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago12.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $800 (8.00x)Bruno Fernandes6.3%Polymarket 6.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Bruno Fernandes
6.3%
6.3%
0.1¢ bid, 12.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
12.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Bruno Fernandes
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bruno Fernandes
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $800 (8.00x)
- Volume
- $51
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Khvicha Kvaratskhelia6%Polymarket 6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $251
Ousmane Dembélé5.1%5.1%2.1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Ousmane Dembélé5.1%Polymarket 5.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ousmane Dembélé
5.1%
5.1%
2.1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Ousmane Dembélé
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ousmane Dembélé
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $677
Pau Cubarsi4.9%4.9%— bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Pau Cubarsi4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Pau Cubarsi
4.9%
4.9%
— bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Pau Cubarsi
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pau Cubarsi
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
Willian Pacho4.9%4.9%— bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Willian Pacho4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Willian Pacho
4.9%
4.9%
— bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Willian Pacho
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Willian Pacho
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
Ferran Torres4.7%4.7%0.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago9.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)Ferran Torres4.7%Polymarket 4.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Ferran Torres
4.7%
4.7%
0.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
9.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Ferran Torres
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ferran Torres
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,087 (10.9x)
- Volume
- $40
Achraf Hakimi4.4%4.4%— bid, 8.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago8.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)Achraf Hakimi4.4%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Achraf Hakimi
4.4%
4.4%
— bid, 8.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
8.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Achraf Hakimi
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Achraf Hakimi
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,136 (11.4x)
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Vinícius Júnior3.9%3.9%— bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Vinícius Júnior3.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Vinícius Júnior
3.9%
3.9%
— bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Vinícius Júnior
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vinícius Júnior
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
Vitinha3.8%3.8%0.1¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)Vitinha3.8%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Vitinha
3.8%
3.8%
0.1¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Vitinha
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vitinha
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $40
Erling Haaland3.7%3.7%0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)Erling Haaland3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Erling Haaland
3.7%
3.7%
0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Erling Haaland
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Erling Haaland
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $120
João Neves3.7%3.7%0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)João Neves3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
João Neves
3.7%
3.7%
0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
João Neves
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- João Neves
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Marc Cucurella3.7%3.7%0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)Marc Cucurella3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Marc Cucurella
3.7%
3.7%
0.1¢ bid, 7.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Marc Cucurella
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marc Cucurella
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,370 (13.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Lautaro Martinez3.7%3.7%0.1¢ bid, 7.2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago7.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)Lautaro Martinez3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Lautaro Martinez
3.7%
3.7%
0.1¢ bid, 7.2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
7.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Lautaro Martinez
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lautaro Martinez
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,389 (13.9x)
- Volume
- $60
Fabian Ruiz3.6%3.6%0.2¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Fabian Ruiz3.6%Polymarket 3.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Fabian Ruiz
3.6%
3.6%
0.2¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Fabian Ruiz
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fabian Ruiz
- Last price
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $110
Kylian Mbappé3.5%3.5%0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Kylian Mbappé3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kylian Mbappé
3.5%
3.5%
0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kylian Mbappé
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kylian Mbappé
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Lamine Yamal3.5%3.5%0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Lamine Yamal3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Lamine Yamal
3.5%
3.5%
0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Lamine Yamal
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lamine Yamal
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Nuno Mendes3.5%3.5%0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Nuno Mendes3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Nuno Mendes
3.5%
3.5%
0.2¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Nuno Mendes
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nuno Mendes
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Dayot Upamecano3.5%3.5%0.1¢ bid, 6.8¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)Dayot Upamecano3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Dayot Upamecano
3.5%
3.5%
0.1¢ bid, 6.8¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Dayot Upamecano
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dayot Upamecano
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,471 (14.7x)
- Volume
- $40
Julián Quiñones3.1%3.1%0.1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 46 min ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Julián Quiñones3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Julián Quiñones
3.1%
3.1%
0.1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Julián Quiñones
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julián Quiñones
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $40
William Saliba3%3%0.1¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 46 min ago5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)William Saliba3%Polymarket 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
William Saliba
3%
3%
0.1¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
William Saliba
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- William Saliba
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $40
Sadio Mané2.2%2.2%0.1¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 46 min ago4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)Sadio Mané2.2%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Sadio Mané
2.2%
2.2%
0.1¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Sadio Mané
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sadio Mané
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $20
Harry Kane2.1%2.1%0.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Harry Kane2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Harry Kane
2.1%
2.1%
0.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Harry Kane
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harry Kane
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $40
Luis Diaz2.1%2.1%0.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 46 min ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Luis Diaz2.1%Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Luis Diaz
2.1%
2.1%
0.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Luis Diaz
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Diaz
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Declan Rice1.3%1.3%0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Declan Rice1.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Declan Rice
1.3%
1.3%
0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Declan Rice
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Declan Rice
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Jude Bellingham1.3%1.3%0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Jude Bellingham1.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Jude Bellingham
1.3%
1.3%
0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Jude Bellingham
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jude Bellingham
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Marquinhos1.3%1.3%0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)Marquinhos1.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Marquinhos
1.3%
1.3%
0.1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Marquinhos
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Marquinhos
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $20
Gabriel Magalhães1.2%1.2%0.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 46 min ago2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)Gabriel Magalhães1.2%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Gabriel Magalhães
1.2%
1.2%
0.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 46 min ago
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Gabriel Magalhães
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 46 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gabriel Magalhães
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 46 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $20
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Lionel Messi
- Rodri
- Michael Olise
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or 2026: 5th Place". Lionel Messi leads at 74%. Next is Rodri at 9.1%. $16K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 5th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 5th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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