The Prediction Markets

Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$147K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Harry Kane 99.8%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 99.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Harry Kane
99.8%
Polymarket 99.8%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
99.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.5¢
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamine Yamal
99.7%
Polymarket 99.7%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
99.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.3¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kylian Mbappé
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
99.1%
Polymarket 99.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
99.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rodri
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
97.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Olise
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
96.8%
Polymarket 96.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
96.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ousmane Dembélé
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erling Haaland
85.5%
Polymarket 85.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
85.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabian Ruiz
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Jude Bellingham
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vitinha
25.1%
Polymarket 25.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $373 (3.73x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
25.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26.8¢
Sell Yes
23.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$373 (3.73x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Declan Rice
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pau Cubarsi
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Achraf Hakimi
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
William Saliba
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
William Saliba
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Diaz
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marc Cucurella
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marc Cucurella
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nuno Mendes
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nuno Mendes
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Fernandes
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Willian Pacho
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Willian Pacho
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket
Ferran Torres
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ferran Torres
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vinícius Júnior
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinícius Júnior
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
João Neves
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
João Neves
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dayot Upamecano
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dayot Upamecano
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Julián Quiñones
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julián Quiñones
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Magalhães
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Magalhães
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$889
Trade this on Polymarket
Lautaro Martinez
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marquinhos
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marquinhos
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Polymarket
Sadio Mané
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sadio Mané
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Harry Kane
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Kylian Mbappé

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026". Harry Kane leads at 99.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 99.7%. $147K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets