The Prediction Markets

Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$271K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Harry Kane 99.2%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 98.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Harry Kane
99.2%
Polymarket 99.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
99.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
99¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lamine Yamal
98.6%
Polymarket 98.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
98.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kylian Mbappé
98.3%
Polymarket 98.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
97.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rodri
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Olise
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ousmane Dembélé
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabian Ruiz
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erling Haaland
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Jude Bellingham
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pau Cubarsi
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Declan Rice
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vitinha
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Achraf Hakimi
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Luis Diaz
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
Lautaro Martinez
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Vinícius Júnior
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinícius Júnior
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Fernandes
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ballondor.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Harry Kane
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Kylian Mbappé

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or Top 5 Finish 2026". Harry Kane leads at 99.2%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 98.6%. $271K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No." If more than 5 players tie for the top 5 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 5 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final five places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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