The Prediction Markets

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$76.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Harry Kane 72.8%

Next is Lamine Yamal at 15.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Harry Kane 72.8%Lamine Yamal 15.8%Kylian Mbappe 5.2%Lionel Messi 1.6%Nuno Mendes 0.9%13 others 3.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 36 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Harry Kane
72.8%
Polymarket 76.5%(74.7% fair)live, just nowKalshi 77%(66.8% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 76.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $131 (1.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Price
76.5%
Fair, margin removed
74.7%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
76.5¢
Sell Yes
76.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$131 (1.31x)
Volume
$6.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Kane
Price
77%
Fair, margin removed
66.8%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 76¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76.5¢.

Lamine Yamal
15.8%
Polymarket 16.7%polled, 54s agoKalshi 17%(14.7% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 16.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $599 (5.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
16.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.7¢
Sell Yes
16.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$599 (5.99x)
Volume
$5.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lamine Yamal
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Kylian Mbappe
5.2%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 6%(5.2% fair)polled, 54s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kylian Mbappé
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$5.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kylian Mbappe
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.5¢.

Lionel Messi
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$5.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Nuno Mendes
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuno Mendes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodri
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodri
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rodri
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$852K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bruno Fernandes
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$727K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Declan Rice
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$963K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Declan Rice
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Erling Haaland
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$497K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Show 10 more outcomes
Jude Bellingham
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$333K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Lautaro Martinez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$508K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lautaro Martinez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Luis Diaz
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$459K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Luis Diaz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Ousmane Dembele
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ousmane Dembélé
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ousmane Dembele
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Michael Olise
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Olise
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$460K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Vinicius Junior
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vinícius Júnior
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vinicius Junior
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Vitinha
0.2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoKalshi 1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$940K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vitinha
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Fabian Ruiz
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabian Ruiz
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Achraf Hakimi
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Achraf Hakimi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$766K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pau Cubarsi
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pau Cubarsi
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: francefootball.fr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, The New York Times, the Associated Press
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Awards: Kalshi and Polymarket both settle on the official award announcement; ties or shared awards are handled differently (Kalshi per contract rules, Polymarket split).
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Harry Kane
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Kylian Mbappe

Live prices for Harry Kane

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026". Harry Kane leads at 72.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 15.8%. $76.7M has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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