The Prediction Markets

Bank of Canada Decision in March?

Closes
Mar 3, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

No Change 42%

Next is 25 bps increase at 36.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

No Change 42%25 bps increase 36.1%25 bps decrease 16.7%50+ bps decrease 4.9%50+ bps increase 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No Change
42%
Polymarket 39%(42% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Change
Last price
39%
Fair, margin removed
42%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps increase
36.1%
Polymarket 33.5%(36.1% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
33.5%
Fair, margin removed
36.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Polymarket
25 bps decrease
16.7%
Polymarket 15.5%(16.7% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
16.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
50+ bps decrease
4.9%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
50+ bps increase
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$707
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bankofcanada.ca

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Change
  • 25 bps increase
  • 25 bps decrease

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Canada Decision in March?". No Change leads at 42%. Next is 25 bps increase at 36.1%. $8K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 3, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the March 2027 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its March 2027 interest rate announcement, scheduled for March 3, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its March 2027 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets