The Prediction Markets

Bank of Mexico rate decision in December

Closes
Dec 17, 2026, in 55 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Maintain current rate 74.8%

Next is Cut 25bps at 9.5%. The venues differ most on Hike 25bps (Polymarket 0.6%, Kalshi 5%), a 4.5-point gap.

Maintain current rate 74.8%Cut 25bps 9.5%Cut 50bps 4.2%Hike 25bps 2.5%Cut more than 50bps 2.5%4 others 6.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Maintain current rate
74.8%
Polymarket 87%(76.3% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 86%(73% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
No change
Last price
87%
Fair, margin removed
76.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
86%
Fair, margin removed
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$704
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 86¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 88¢.

Cut 25bps
9.5%
Polymarket 11%(9.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 11%(9.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps decrease
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$937
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 25bps
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Cut 50bps
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 50bps
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike 25bpsArb
2.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 bps increase
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 25bps
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Cut more than 50bps
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 50bps
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike more than 50bps
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 50bps
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$133
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps decrease
1.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps decrease
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Polymarket
Hike 50bps
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 50bps
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
50+ bps increase
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
50+ bps increase
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Hike 25bps on Polymarket at 0.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 1¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 17, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 17, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: banxico.org.mx
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Banco de México, Trading Economics
Show full rule comparison
  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes Dec 17, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 17, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Maintain current rate
  • Cut 25bps
  • Cut 50bps

Live prices for Maintain current rate

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Mexico rate decision in December". Maintain current rate leads at 74.8%. Next is Cut 25bps at 9.5%. $6K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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