The Prediction Markets

Bank of Russia decision in October?

Closes
Oct 24, 2026, in 1 day
Traded
$396K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Maintain current rate 64.3%

Next is Decrease at 15.7%. The venues differ most on Maintain current rate (Polymarket 80%, Kalshi 82%), a 2.0-point gap.

Maintain current rate 64.3%Decrease 15.7%Cut 1-25bps 7.9%Cut more than 25bps 3.9%Hike 1-25bps 3.9%2 others 4.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Maintain current rate
64.3%
Polymarket 80%(64.1% fair)polled, 58s agoKalshi 82%(64.4% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Change
Last price
80%
Fair, margin removed
64.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maintain current rate
Last price
82%
Fair, margin removed
64.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 81¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Decrease
15.7%
Polymarket 19.5%(15.6% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decrease
Last price
19.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$133K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cut 1-25bps
7.9%
Kalshi 10%(7.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut 1-25bps
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
7.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cut more than 25bps
3.9%
Kalshi 5%(3.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cut more than 25bps
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike 1-25bps
3.9%
Kalshi 5%(3.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike 1-25bps
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Kalshi
Hike more than 25bps
3.9%
Kalshi 5%(3.9% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hike more than 25bps
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Kalshi
Increase
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Increase
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$133K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 24, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 10:29 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cbr.ru
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bank of Russia, Trading Economics
Show full rule comparison
  • Buckets assume 25 bp steps: Kalshi 'Cut >25bps' / 'Hike >25bps' and Polymarket '50+ bps' differ for a move strictly between 25 and 50 bps; Kalshi 'Cut 1-25bps' also covers moves under 25 bps.
  • Polymarket names the reference rate per bank (Fed: upper bound of the target range; ECB: deposit facility rate; BoJ: uncollateralized overnight call rate); Kalshi settles on the announced action.
  • Both settle on the scheduled meeting in the named month; an unscheduled move between meetings counts for neither.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 23, 2026, 10:29 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Maintain current rate
  • Decrease
  • Cut 1-25bps

Live prices for Maintain current rate

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bank of Russia decision in October?". Maintain current rate leads at 64.3%. Next is Decrease at 15.7%. $396K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s October meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its October 23, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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