The Prediction Markets

Bartashevich vs Burgic

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$81K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bartashevich 71.1%

Next is Set Handicap: Yara Bartashevich (-1.5) vs Ema Burgic (+1.5) at 50%. The venues differ most on Bartashevich (Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 72%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bartashevich
71.1%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 54s agoKalshi 72%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
W35 Bakersfield, CA: Yara Bartashevich vs Ema Burgic
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yara Bartashevich
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 71¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 71¢.

Set Handicap: Yara Bartashevich (-1.5) vs Ema Burgic (+1.5)
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 54s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Yara Bartashevich (-1.5) vs Ema Burgic (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Ema Burgic
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ema Burgic
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Set Handicap: Ema Burgic (-1.5) vs Yara Bartashevich (+1.5)
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Ema Burgic (-1.5) vs Yara Bartashevich (+1.5)
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ITF, ESPN, Flashscore
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bartashevich
  • Set Handicap: Yara Bartashevich (-1.5) vs Ema Burgic (+1.5)
  • Ema Burgic

Live prices for Bartashevich

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bartashevich vs Burgic". Bartashevich leads at 71.1%. Next is Set Handicap: Yara Bartashevich (-1.5) vs Ema Burgic (+1.5) at 50%. $81K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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