The Prediction Markets

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$872K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

500M 42%

Next is 2B at 39%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
500M
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
2B
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
2B
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$299K
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
3B
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
3B
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$933
Trade this on Polymarket
4B
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
4B
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Polymarket
5B
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
5B
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
6B
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
6B
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
8B
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
8B
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Polymarket
12B
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
12B
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Polymarket
10B
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
10B
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 500M
  • 2B
  • 1B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 500M leads at 42%. Next is 2B at 39%. $872K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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