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What the markets expect
Democratic sweep 43.1%
Next is Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska at 6.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Democratic sweep43.1%42%43.1% fair41¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 46s ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Democratic sweep43.1%Kalshi 42%(43.1% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Democratic sweep
43.1%
42%
43.1% fair
41¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Democratic sweep
43.1%
Kalshi 42%(43.1% fair)polled, 46s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Democratic sweep
- Last price
- 42%
- Fair, margin removed
- 43.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska6.2%6%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 46s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska6.2%Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
6.2%
6%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
6.2%
Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio6.2%6%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 46s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio6.2%Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
6.2%
6%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
6.2%
Kalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $1K
Michigan, New Hampshire5.1%5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 46s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire5.1%Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
5.1%
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
5.1%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, New Hampshire
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio5.1%5%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 46s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio5.1%Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
5.1%
5%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
5.1%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $257
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio4.1%4%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 46s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio4.1%Kalshi 4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
4.1%
4%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
4.1%
Kalshi 4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $982
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio3.1%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 46s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio3.1%Kalshi 3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
3.1%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
3.1%
Kalshi 3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $932
Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio2.6%2.5%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 46s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio2.6%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
2.6%
2.5%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
2.6%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Democratic sweepKalshi: “Republican sweep”2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Democratic sweep2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Democratic sweep
Kalshi: “Republican sweep”
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Democratic sweep
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Republican sweep
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $521
Michigan2.1%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan
2.1%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $931
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Michigan, New HampshireKalshi: “Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire”2.1%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
Kalshi: “Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire”
2.1%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $930
Michigan, New HampshireKalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire”2.1%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
Kalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire”
2.1%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, New Hampshire
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $468
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio”2.1%2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio”
2.1%
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $933
New Hampshire, Alaska, OhioKalshi: “New Hampshire, Ohio”2%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio2%Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
Kalshi: “New Hampshire, Ohio”
2%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire, Ohio
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $702
Alaska1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alaska1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alaska
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alaska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alaska
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $930
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, AlaskaKalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska”1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
Kalshi: “Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska”
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)New Hampshire1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire, Alaska1%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 46s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)New Hampshire, Alaska1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire, Alaska
1%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New Hampshire, Alaska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire, Alaska
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Ohio1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ohio1%Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ohio
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ohio
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ohio
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $559
Alaska, Ohio0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alaska, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alaska, Ohio
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alaska, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Maine0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Maine0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Maine
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Maine
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Maine, Michigan0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Maine, Michigan0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Maine, Michigan
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Maine, Michigan
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, AlaskaKalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Alaska”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
Kalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Alaska”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, Alaska
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, AlaskaKalshi: “Maine, Alaska”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
Kalshi: “Maine, Alaska”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Alaska
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, AlaskaKalshi: “Michigan, Alaska”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
Kalshi: “Michigan, Alaska”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, Alaska
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Maine, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Maine, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Maine, Alaska, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Maine, Alaska, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Maine, Michigan, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maine, Michigan, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Michigan, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Michigan, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, OhioKalshi: “Michigan, Alaska, Ohio”0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 46s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Kalshi: “Michigan, Alaska, Ohio”
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 46s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan, Alaska, Ohio
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections, Michigan Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Democratic sweep
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win?". Democratic sweep leads at 43.1%. Next is Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska at 6.2%. $14K has traded across 32 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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