The Prediction Markets

BBC Sports Personality of the Year Winner 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 57 days
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Harry Kane 76.3%

Next is Amy Hunt at 14.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Harry Kane 76.3%Amy Hunt 14.9%Josh Kerr 3.1%Luke Littler 2.4%Matt Weston 1.8%Saffie Osborne 1.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Harry Kane
76.3%
Polymarket 77.5%(76.3% fair)polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
77.5%
Fair, margin removed
76.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amy Hunt
14.9%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 18.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $532 (5.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amy Hunt
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
11.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Kerr
3.1%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Kerr
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$938
Trade this on Polymarket
Luke Littler
2.4%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luke Littler
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Weston
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Weston
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
Saffie Osborne
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saffie Osborne
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Harry Kane
  • Amy Hunt
  • Josh Kerr

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "BBC Sports Personality of the Year Winner 2026". Harry Kane leads at 76.3%. Next is Amy Hunt at 14.9%. $34K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the athlete who wins the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the winner whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award is cancelled, postponed after January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the BBC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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